Thursday 13 December 2012

Is Roulette Random?

Roulette Is Random


Is it?  Can you prove it?

Have you ever been playing and noticed 5, 10, 24 come up one after the other?  Or a similar combination, on numbers very close to each other on the wheel.

I remember seeing 23 come up 5 times in 10 spins.  Did I think this was random?  Of course not, roulette is not a random game.

Last week when I was in a casino, there were 4 dealer changes in one hour.  Is this just coincidence or does the fact that one of the dealers knows me from another casino have anything to do with it?

If you say to a dealer, "It's very random today, isn't it?" what will be the reply?  The dealer usually won't say anything, because the dealer isn't an idiot.  They know how roulette works; or at least part of the deal.  Maybe not the full picture.

The casinos know roulette can be beaten, that's why the modern wheels have counter-measures (ever noticed how the older wheels have deeper numbered pockets than the modern ones?), why dealers change the speed of the wheel each spin, why dealers are changed when somebody is winning too much.  When they suspect a pro player is on a table, the experienced dealer will be brought in...but let me tell you, even they can't change the pro player's edge.  It's often fun to have a competition with them at the table, but some dealers take it very personally, so don't piss them off too much!

Now if we can agree that it isn't random, what can we do with this information?  Well, we can find a way to beat the game, by making our edge higher than the casinos.  I'm not talking about betting red/black, odd/even, 2nd dozen type of bets - they will lose in the long run.  I'm talking about betting on the numbers straight-up, that's where the real money is to be made.  The 35:1 payout bets.

More to follow...

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